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February 8, 2024

This might actually be the week. 

After months of winking remarks, prayerful consideration and not even plausibly deniable campaign events, Eastern District Congressman Matt Rosendale is expected to declare his run for U.S. Senate as soon as this weekend, when the Montana GOP is holding its winter campaign kickoff event. 

Both the New York Times and Associated Press reported Wednesday that Rosendale will formalize his plans at the party convention, which begins Friday morning in Helena, citing various unnamed sources familiar with his deliberations. 

Evidence that Rosendale is planning a run for the Senate seat has long mounted. Rosendale has even seemingly admitted his plans out loud, only for his campaign to clarify that he was speaking hypothetically. But Wednesday’s reporting and Capitolized’s own sources in Republican circles suggest that the announcement is real and impending. 

The winter kickoff’s agenda identifies Rosendale as a special guest during breakfast on Saturday morning. Tim Sheehy, the other Republican vying to retire longtime Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester this year, is listed as a special guest at dinner Friday night, along with Western District Congressman Ryan Zinke and former Trump administration official Chad Wolf, the convention’s keynote speaker.

Party conventions are an opportunity for activists, lawmakers and political functionaries — campaign and non-profit staff, lobbyists, money bundlers, etc. — to mingle, scheme and speechify. This year’s winter kickoff agenda includes workshops about deploying political data, flipping legislative seats and media relations. 

But conventions can also provide a built-in audience for a campaign launch. In 2019, then-Congressman Greg Gianforte announced his (ultimately successful) campaign for governor at the Montana GOP’s summer convention. 

Rosendale’s entry to the Senate race carries national significance because it sets up a potentially bruising and costly primary with Sheehy, who has the support of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its chair, Montana U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, Gianforte, Zinke and other prominent Republicans both in Montana and nationwide. 

Since the NRSC’s recruitment of Sheehy last June, talk of a potential primary with Sheehy has simmered and animosity between Rosendale and his allies and other Republicans has ramped up. There are too many instances of will-he-or-won’t-he speculation, rumors, publicized jabs and competing polls to list here, but the basic outline of the dynamic is this: Rosendale is a staunchly anti-abortion conservative hardliner who voted against certification of presidential election results in 2020, but who nonetheless has an uncertain relationship with former president Donald Trump. Sheehy is Gallatin County businessman who has never run for office but possesses significant wealth, has openly embraced Trump and Trumpian politics on the campaign trail, but has staked out positions in the past that might make him more appealing in a general election to moderates and independents. 

Rosendale’s camp is counting on a constituency that wants an unflinching “movement” conservative who will govern like he campaigns. Sheehy, Rosendale has said, represents the “uniparty,” the villainously bipartisan political establishment responsible for business as usual. At a recent campaign event with fellow Republican firebrand Matt Gaetz, a Florida congressman, Rosendale and Gaetz repeatedly emphasized that Sheehy is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s candidate, not Montana’s. 

In Rosendale, Sheehy’s camp and the GOP establishment see a poor fundraiser who already lost to Tester in 2018, and who betrayed his own party when he helped oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last fall. Only Sheehy, they think, can capture enough independents and moderates in the general election to defeat Tester, a famously prodigious fundraiser with widespread name recognition, high favorability ratings and a proven ability to win elections in environments that otherwise favor Republicans. 

It’s a collision of competing ambitions. National Republicans are laser-focused on flipping the two seats necessary to gain a majority in the Senate. Rosendale is similarly focused on moving not just the Senate but his party further to the right. 

Former Montana secretary of state and Public Service Commissioner Brad Johnson is also running for the Senate seat, though Sheehy and Rosendale are drawing the most attention by far. 

Tension between the two campaigns has even influenced the agenda of the convention itself. Last week, the Washington Examiner reported that a political consultant with close ties to the Trump family was invited and subsequently uninvited to speak at the winter kickoff following pushback from Rosendale allies who were unhappy with the consultant’s past social media posts criticizing the congressman. 

But that tension has yet to generate a formal campaign announcement. Capitolized’s discussions with sources on both sides of the aisle and both sides of the GOP divide suggest some logic behind the wait: Rosendale will likely never have the financial support that Sheehy can build, but he can earn free media attention by publicly flirting with a run. Following the same theory, the longer he waits before Montana’s March 11 filing deadline, the less time the Sheehy camp has to marshall resources for attack ads. 

Daines, as the top elected Republican tasked with winning a majority in the U.S. Senate, has openly encouraged Rosendale to stay in the House and has worked behind the scenes to avoid a contested primary. We should know soon whether that ship has sailed.

—Arren Kimbel-Sannit 

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Dept. of Corrections

The lead piece in last week’s Capitolized, regarding the question of whether plaintiffs in a successful lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of a 2021 election law should receive attorney fees from the state, misstated a fact. Our story said that Senate Bill 319 began as a minor tweak to campaign finance law but was amended wholesale in the final days of the 2021 session in a special committee meeting that was closed to the public. That committee meeting was not, in fact, closed to the public. It was closed to public comment. Capitolized regrets the error. 

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GOP Political Strategist Arrested on Stalking Charges

A Republican political strategist was arrested in Whitefish this weekend on charges that he stalked and harassed a Flathead County resident he had accused of sexual abuse, according to court documents. 

Whitefish police arrested Dan Duffey on Feb. 3. He was charged with one misdemeanor count and one felony count of stalking and is being held in county jail on a $50,000 bond. 

The arrest was first reported by the Daily Inter Lake Wednesday. The Inter Lake’s story did not note that Duffey was the political director for part of Gov. Greg Gianforte’s 2020 campaign, or that he is still active in Montana politics. Just days before his arrest, he was quoted by Lee newspapers’ Montana State News Bureau as an officer of Montana Policy Action, a 501(c)4 dark money group that purchased $182,000 in television ads criticizing Montana Congressman Matt Rosendale ahead of his expected run for U.S. Senate. 

Neither Duffey nor his attorney could be reached for comment by publication time. Montana Policy Action is registered to GOP political consultant Jake Eaton, according to federal tax records. Eaton told Capitolized Wednesday that Duffey is no longer with the group as of his arrest.

According to court documents, a Whitefish couple came to the police on Jan. 21 to report harassment by Duffey. The husband, who is referred to as “SS” in the affidavit supporting the charges against Duffey, told police that he and Duffey had met at a football game in Missoula in November and hung out later that night, connecting over a shared interest in rugby. A few weeks later, Duffey texted the man asking to get a beer. The man did not respond. Duffey then allegedly sent the man a message accusing him of being “all over” Duffey and forcing Duffey to touch his penis. 

The man told police that nothing of the sort had occurred. 

“He indicated that Duffey texted [him] for a few weeks and would apologize for the allegations but then would blow up because SS was not responding,” court documents read. “[He] stated Duffey would send messages saying ‘f–k you, I’m gonna take this public, I’m going to ruin your life.’”

Court documents state that in subsequent weeks Duffey attempted to contact the man’s family via text and social media, sent anonymous emails to the man’s rugby team and local businesses that sponsor the team accusing him of sexual assault and contacted the man’s employer with a similar claim, which indicated that Duffey had not contacted law enforcement about his claims against the man, according to court documents. 

In one incident, the man’s now-wife told police that Duffey had sent a letter to her mother claiming the man had committed sexual assault and included “pictures of [Duffey’s] military service and pictures … with well-known politicians,” court documents say.

Duffey allegedly also found the website for the couple’s wedding, submitted false RSVPs for guests and included “disturbing messages,” including: “I would not go to this wedding if I were you. The groom sexually assaults men, and he’s going to be disbarred for an ethics violation.”

Court records show that Duffey then began distributing flyers featuring his claims against the man at businesses in Flathead County, in residential areas, and at the lodge where the man and his partner were scheduled to be married. 

On Feb. 3, the man’s now-wife told police she received a text from an unknown number that stated, “it should be pretty obvious by now, that this isn’t gonna end tonight when you get married, this goes on for years until I see [the man] either behind bars or paying me so much money, you’ll never be able to do anything nice again.”

Duffey was arrested following a traffic stop later that day. After police obtained a search warrant, they found dozens of flyers, posters and letters in the car concerning Duffey’s claim against the man, as well as a gun in a backpack, according to court records. 

This isn’t the first time Duffey has encountered legal trouble. In 2020, the Gianforte campaign fired Duffey after Bozeman police began investigating an accusation that Duffey used his car door to slam a car parked next to him in what appeared to be a road rage incident. No charges were ever filed. 

Duffey is scheduled to be arraigned on Feb. 22. 

—Arren Kimbel-Sannit

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Another Bump in the Road for SB 442

Attorneys for Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte have indicated his office will appeal a recent district court ruling allowing lawmakers to override his veto of a marijuana tax revenue allocation measure.

In a motion filed in Lewis and Clark County District Court this week, attorneys for Gianforte asked Judge Mike Menahan to stay his judgment in the lawsuit, pending an appeal. 

“A stay is especially appropriate here based on interbranch comity and the separation of powers,” the attorneys wrote. “This case implicates all three branches of State government. Before the Judicial branch finally resolves questions about veto provisions applicable to the Executive and Legislative branches, Defendants should be afforded appellate review and a final decision by the Montana Supreme Court.”

Menahan ruled last month that lawmakers must have the opportunity to override the governor’s veto of Senate Bill 442, bipartisan legislation that allocated marijuana tax revenue to county road maintenance, conservation projects and veterans’ services, among other areas. Gianforte vetoed the bill on the last day of the 68th Legislature. His office had opposed the measure throughout the session, arguing the state should not pay for local infrastructure repairs. 

Normally, lawmakers have the opportunity to override a gubernatorial veto during a session. If not in session, they can override a veto via mail poll. But the timing of Gianforte’s veto of SB 442 meant that lawmakers pursued neither option. 

That’s because lawmakers in the Senate voted to adjourn sine die after Gianforte issued the veto but before the veto was read across the rostrum, as is standard procedure. Lawmakers who voted to adjourn included many who supported the bill, including its sponsor, Sen. Mike Lang, R-Malta. But Lang and his colleagues weren’t aware that Gianforte had issued the veto. Lang assumed that if Gianforte did veto the bill, lawmakers would have a chance to override the veto via mail poll after the session.

But in the eyes of the governor’s office, Gianforte issued the veto during the session because the House was still at work, even though the Senate’s adjournment precluded a successful veto override vote, which requires two-thirds of the entire Legislature. As such, his office contends that lawmakers had their chance to override the veto and missed it.

Litigation ensued in June. Plaintiffs, including conservation and local government groups, argued that the Montana Constitution does not contemplate a situation in which the governor can avoid an override vote through the timing of his veto. The governor’s office argued that Gianforte appropriately handled the veto and that the plaintiffs were improperly asking a judge to solve a political problem. Menahan ultimately ruled with the plaintiffs, ordering the override process to proceed. 

But that process will now have to wait at least a little longer. One of the attorneys for the plaintiffs, Rylee Sommers-Flanagan, said they would oppose the governor’s motion to stay the judgment. 

—Arren Kimbel-Sannit

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On Background

Right-Wing Congressman to Run for Senate in Montana, Igniting G.O.P. Fight: The New York Times’ reporting of Matt Rosendale’s plans has further agitated an already frenzied atmosphere within Montana political circles. 

Man accused of leading smear campaign charged with stalking: The Daily Inter Lake was first to report Dan Duffey’s arrest. What the Flathead’s paper of record didn’t note was that Duffey is a well-connected GOP political strategist.

The post Is Rosendale Really Finally Ready? appeared first on Montana Free Press.